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The term "dual circulation economy" has been popping up in economic discussions across China, signaling a potential paradigm shift in the Chinese economy.
最近，“双循环经济”成为了中国经济的关键词，这意味着中国经济的发展模式或要发生转向。
But what exactly is a dual circulation economy?
但究竟什么是“双循环经济”呢？
The concept has two equally strong components: "internal circulation," which refers to domestic economic activities, and "external circulation," which relates to China's economic links with the outside world.
这一战略有两个部分组成，“内循环”，即国内的经济活动，和“外循环”，即中国与外部世界的经济联系。
It signals that China wants to reduce the role of international trade in its economy, and strengthen its domestic economy.
“双循环经济”提出表明中国想要降低对于国际贸易的依赖，同时加强其国内经济。
Why?
这又是为什么呢？
Well, a couple of factors are at play. First of all, as the COVID-19 pandemic sends shudders across the world, the economic outlook outside China does not look particularly optimistic at the moment.
这其中有许多因素，首先，随着新冠疫情震荡全球，中国当前的外部经济环境并不乐观。
Worsening China-U.S. relations have also loomed large in China's consideration, as the U.S. contemplates decoupling and seems bent on crippling China's economic and technological development.
恶化的中美关系也是促成这一经济策略的重要因素，毕竟，美国盘算着和中国脱钩，并且似乎执意要阻挠中国的经济和技术发展。
These, coupled with rising unilateralism and protectionism around the world, have pushed China to think more long term.
再加上单边主义和保护主义在世界范围内抬头，这些都促使中国要做长期筹谋。
How can this dual strategy be achieved?
但这一策略要如何实行？
While specific measures have not been fleshed out by the government, economists have rushed to put forward some general suggestions.
尽管细节尚未明确，但经济学家已争先给出一些总体性建议。
For example, they argue that to fortify China's domestic economy, domestic consumption needs to play a much bigger role in driving economic growth, as it currently accounts for about 55 percent of the country's GDP.
举例而言，为强化国内经济，国内消费应在刺激增长方面发挥更大作用。当前消费在中国国内生产总值中占比55%。
To make that happen, China will need to increase its residents' incomes and optimize income distribution so that residents can be more relaxed about spending their money.
为了增加消费对经济的驱动，中国需要增加居民收入，优化居民收入分配，这样居民方可更加放心消费。
Some other issues need to be tackled as well. China needs to make sure its land, capital, talent, and technology, along with other resources, go to places where they are needed the most. So it has to deepen its supply-side structural reform to make sure its economy runs efficiently.
中国经济的一些其他问题也需要得到关注和解决。中国需要保证其土地、资金、人才和科技，以及其他一些资源被配置到最需要他们的地方，这意味着中国需要深化供给侧改革，以确保其经济运行更加高效。
Innovation and the digital economy, which involves developing AI, big data and 5G, all of which are major engines behind today's economic growth, have to receive even greater attention.
创新和发展数字经济，包括发展AI、大数据、5G，都需要受到更多的重视，因为他们都是当前经济发展的重要助力。
That said, does a dual circulation economy mean China will isolate itself from the rest of the world? Certainly not. China has benefited enormously from opening-up in the past four decades and recognizes it should continue down this path.
不过，“双循环经济”是否意味着中国会闭关锁国？当然不会，中国从过去40年的开放中获益匪浅，认为应该继续沿着这条路走下去。
But how? Chinese economists believe the country should welcome more foreign investment, strengthen its Belt and Road Initiative, negotiate more free trade agreements and take advantage of its free trade zones and ports.
但具体如何继续开放呢？中国的经济学家们认为，中国应继续欢迎外国投资，加强推进“一带一路”，达成更多的自贸协议，利用好自贸区和自贸港。
Will the outside world be affected by China's new economic policy? Absolutely and there are many implications.
其他国家会受到中国新经济策略的影响吗？当然，并且影响会很大。
The growth of domestic consumption makes investment in Chinese consumer companies a smart choice. President Trump's attack on the supply of semiconductors has accelerated China's development of substitute chips, making Chinese tech companies that serve the domestic market an attractive investment.
国内消费增长让投资中国消费品公司成为明智之举，特朗普政府禁止对中国供应芯片也让中国加快了替代研发的脚步，这意味着中国的科技公司将会是好的投资选择。
Companies on the export side of the dual economy also provide an opportunity for steady growth. The opening of China's stock and bond markets gives investors access to Chinese companies serving both sectors of the dual economy.
双循环中从事出口的公司也为稳定增长提供了机会，中国股市和债市的开放也让投资者可以接触到那些既服务内循环，也服务外循环的中国公司。
So, yes, China would still need to work with the world to strengthen its economic resilience. But how the world engages with the Chinese economy also require adjustment.
所以没错，中国仍然需要和世界合作以强化其经济发展的韧性，但世界也需要思考与中国经济合作的新策略。 |
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发表于 2020-10-29 09:35:36
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