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Recently, I was on the Richard Quest show on CNN TV and I was asked the question that we have the battle of the billionaires:
最近，我上了CNN电台的Richard Quest节目。我被问到了一个问题，说现在的亿万富翁之间存在一种争议：
On one hand we have Mark Zuckerberg saying, “Don’t worry, artificial intelligence will give us new jobs, new industries, create wealth, prosperity.”
一方面，马克·扎克伯格说，“别担心，人工智能会给我们带来新工作、新产业，创造财富和繁荣。”
And then we have people like, well, Elon Musk, who says, “Watch out. They pose an existential threat to humanity.”
同时又有其他人，比如伊隆·马斯克说，“要小心！它们对人类是一种潜在威胁。”
Who knows, maybe one day they’ll put us in zoos and throw peanuts at us and make us dance, make us dance behind bars like we do with monkeys and with bears.
谁知道呢，或许有一天人工智能会把我们关在动物园里，给我们扔花生，让我们跳舞，让我们在牢笼后跳舞，就像我们现在对猴子和熊所做的事一样。
Well, my personal point of view is that both points of view are in some sense correct.
我个人的观点是：两种说法各有千秋。
In the short term, I think Zuckerberg is right. Artificial intelligence will open up whole new vistas, it will make life more convenient, things will be cheaper, new industries will be created. I personally think the A.I. industry will be bigger than the automobile industry. In fact, I think the automobile is going to become a robot. You’ll talk to your car. You’ll argue with your car. Your car will give you the best facts, the best route between point A and point B; the car will be part of the robotics industry. Whole new industries involving the repair, maintenance, servicing of robots, not to mention robots that are software programs that you talk to and make life more convenient.
从短期来看，我觉得扎克伯格是对的。人工智能会给我们带来新的期望，能让生活更加便利，某些东西会更便宜，也会诞生新的产业。我个人觉得人工智能产业会超过汽车产业。实际上，我觉得汽车将来会变成一个机器人。你可以跟你的汽车讲话，跟它辩论，你的汽车会告诉你最佳情况，从一个地方到另一个地方的最佳路线。汽车将成为机器人行业的一部分，整个全新的行业包括修理、维护、机器人服务，更不用说那些你可以与之聊天并让生活更加便利的软件程序机器人了。
However, let’s not be naïve. There is a point, a tipping point at which they can become dangerous and pose an existential threat. And that tipping point is self-awareness.
但是，我们可别太天真了。有一个点，一个临界点，机器人可能会变得危险，并给人类带来生存的威胁。那个临界点就是自我意识。
You see, robots are not aware of the fact that they’re robots. They’re so stupid they simply carry out what they are instructed to do because they’re adding machines. We forget that. Adding machines don’t have a will. Adding machines simply do what you program them to do.
大家知道，机器人并不知道自己是机器人。它们很笨，只会做着人类让它去做的事，因为它们只是计算的机器而已。我们忘记了这一点，计算机器本身没有自己的意志。你给计算机输入什么，它就会做什么。
Now, of course, let’s not be naïve about this, eventually adding machines may be able to compute alternate goals and alternate scenarios when they realize that they are not human. Right now, robots do not know that. However, there is a tipping point at which point they could become dangerous.
不过，当然，我们不要在这一点上太天真了。当计算机意识到它们不是人类时，它可能会计算一些不同的目标和场景。目前，机器人还没觉醒到这一步。但是，一旦到了临界点，它们会变得很危险。
Right now, our most advanced robot has the intelligence of a cockroach—a rather stupid cockroach. However, it’s only a matter of time before robots become as smart as a mouse, then as smart as a rat, then a rabbit, then a cat, a dog, and eventually as smart as a monkey.
目前，我们最先进的机器人有着蟑螂一样的智力——一只比较笨的蟑螂。但是，机器人很快就会变得像家鼠一样聪明，进而像田鼠一样，随后就是兔子、猫、狗，最终像猴子一样聪明， 这只是时间问题。
Now, monkeys know they are not human. They have a certain amount of self-awareness. Dogs, especially young dogs, are not quite sure. One reason why dogs obey their masters is because they think the master is the top dog, and so they’re a little bit confused about whether or not we humans are part of the dog tribe. But monkeys, I think, have no problems with that; they know they’re not human.
现在，猴子知道自己不是人类。它们有一定的自我意识。犬类，尤其是幼犬，还不确定自己是不是人类。狗之所以服从主人的命令，其中一个原因就是它们以为主人是领头狗， 所以它们有点困惑，不知道人类到底是不是犬类的一部分。但是我认为猴子很清楚，它们知道自己不是人类。
So when robots become as intelligent as monkeys I think we should put a chip in their brain to shut them off if they begin to have murderous thoughts. When will that happen? I don’t know.
所以当机器人变得像猴子一样聪明时，我们就需要在它们脑中放一个芯片，关闭掉它们想要杀人的念头。什么时候会走到这一步？我不知道。
I suspect it will happen late in this century because I think we have decades of experience that we have to go through and learn before we can pose this particular problem. So, in other words, I don’t think there’s any rush today to deal with killer robots that are going to destroy the human race and take over, but I think we have to keep one eye on the ball and realize that by the end of this century, when robots do become self-aware, we have to be careful.
可能本世纪末就会出现这一幕，因为我觉得在我们有能力解决这个问题之前，还需要几十年的经历。所以换句话说，现在还不着急去应对那些想要毁灭人类、夺取权力的机器人杀手，但我们必须要时刻警惕，并意识到本世纪末当机器人真的拥有了自我意识的时候，我们必须要做好防范。 |
发表于 2019-9-6 09:50:06
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