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标题: 2021-06-10 央行行长易纲第十三届陆家嘴论坛主题演讲 [打印本页]

作者: Interpreter 时间: 2021-9-22 09:50
标题: 2021-06-10 央行行长易纲第十三届陆家嘴论坛主题演讲
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中国人民银行行长易纲在第十三届陆家嘴论坛上的欢迎辞和主题演讲
2021年6月10日

Keynote Speech by PBOC Governor YI Gang at the 13th Lujiazui Forum
June 10, 2021, Shanghai

尊敬的李强书记、龚正市长、吴清副市长，树清主席、会满主席、功胜局长，女士们、先生们：

Honorable Secretary Li Qiang,
Mayor Gong Zheng,
Vice Mayor Wu Qing,
Chairman Guo Shuqing,
Chairman Yi Huiman,
Administrator Pan Gongsheng,
Ladies and gentlemen,

大家上午好！

Good morning!

作为本届论坛的共同轮值主席，我谨代表主办方，向出席第十三届陆家嘴论坛的各位嘉宾、各位朋友表示热烈的欢迎！

As the co-chair of the forum, I would like to extend warm welcome to all distinguished guests and friends attending the 13th Lujiazui Forum.

陆家嘴论坛已成功举办12届，见证了中国金融事业的进步，见证了上海国际金融中心的快速发展。特别是，去年以来，中国金融体系稳妥应对疫情冲击，为经济快速恢复增长提供了有力支撑，上海国际金融中心建设也取得了新的进展。比如，引入了全国首家外资独资寿险、公募基金和外资控股理财公司；推出了国内首批利率期权产品、多个国际期货新品种；金融科技创新监管试点走在全国前列；超过900家境外机构进入中国银行间市场，持债规模达到3.3万亿元。我们很高兴看到，上海在全球金融中心的排名已连续两次位居第三。在此，我代表人民银行向上海市表示祝贺！

Lujiazui Forum has been held 12 times. It has stood witness to the progress of China’s financial sector and the rapid development of Shanghai as an international financial center. China’s financial sector has provided strong support to COVID-19 response since last year and served as a backstop to China’s fast economic recovery. The development of Shanghai as an international financial center has also seen new progress. For instance, the first wholly foreign-owned life insurance firm and public equity fund, as well as the first foreign-controlled wealth management firm have been established in Shanghai; the first domestic interest rate options and a number of new globally-traded futures products have been launched here; Shanghai is also one of the frontrunners in the pilot regulation on Fintech innovation; and over 900 overseas institutions have entered China’s interbank market, with total bond holdings hitting RMB3.3 trillion. We are pleased to note that Shanghai has ranked the third among all international financial centers in the world for two consecutive times. I would like to congratulate Shanghai on this remarkable achievement on behalf of the PBOC.

这次论坛聚焦金融支持碳达峰碳中和、科技创新、人民群众“美好生活”，金融业对外开放等重大议题，这些议题都是金融系统贯彻创新、协调、绿色、开放、共享五大新发展理念，助力加快构建新发展格局，支持经济高质量发展的重要内容。

This year, the forum focuses on major issues such as financial support for peaking carbon emissions and achieving carbon neutrality, scientific and technological innovation, the well-being of the people and the opening-up of the financial sector. They are all important issues for the financial system as we set out to implement the new concepts of innovative, coordinated, green, open and shared development. They will go a long way in building a new development paradigm and achieving high-quality economic development.

今天，我想借此机会，围绕货币政策、绿色金融和普惠金融发展等话题同大家进行交流。当前我国进入新发展阶段，我们观察到人口结构、资源结构、产业结构、区域结构等都在发生深刻调整和变化，对潜在经济增长和物价水平产生影响。

Today, I would like to take this opportunity to share with you my observations on the monetary policy, green finance and inclusive finance. As China enters a new era of development, its demographic, resource, industrial and regional structures are all undergoing profound adjustments, which in turn, will have an impact on potential economic growth and price levels.

在从高速增长转向高质量发展的过程中，我国经济总量基数越来越大，同时受劳动生产率增速下降和人口结构变化等影响，潜在经济增长率会有一定减缓。人口结构变化也会对经济供给和需求两侧产生影响，在人口老龄化趋势下，以资本和劳动投入来拉动经济的增长模式难以为继，未来可持续增长主要靠提高全要素生产率，并通过一系列改革措施释放经济增长潜力。去年以来，尽管受到新冠疫情的严重冲击，但如果从去年和今年两年平均来看，我们预测我国GDP增速将接近于潜在增长率水平。

As the Chinese economy shifts from high-speed growth to high-quality development, the economic aggregate will keep rising. A bigger base number, coupled with slower productivity growth and demographic changes, will naturally lead to somewhat slower potential growth. The demographic changes will also have implications for supply and demand. In an aging society, growth driven by capital and labor inputs is hard to sustain. Sustainable growth should thus largely depend on improving total factor productivity (TFP) and unleashing the economic potential through reforms. Despite the severe impacts of COVID-19 of last year, we can still say with comfort that China’s GDP is close to its potential growth.

货币政策要关注结构变化对物价的影响。人口老龄化会导致居民预防性储蓄上升、消费倾向下降，因此对通胀产生抑制作用。而绿色转型会使物价走势有所上升。什么是绿色转型？绿色转型就是使人们的生产和生活方式转向低碳模式。因为碳排放能源是大头，简单地说绿色转型就是鼓励大家多用清洁能源，少用化石能源。但问题是在现有技术条件下，从整体上看化石能源便宜且稳定，清洁能源贵且尚不稳定，这就是所谓“绿色溢价”，因为化石能源碳排放成本基本上没有体现。绿色转型的任务就是对碳排放加以限制，使碳排放的成本显性化，也就是说要求排放者对增量的碳排放付出成本，同时对存量的碳排放权通过定价实现可交易，使得减排者获得收益，也使得排放者付出适当成本，从而鼓励生产和消费向低碳方式转型。这一过程客观上会导致和碳排放有关的成本上升，进而带来结构性价格上涨的压力。以上分析有对价格下跌的压力，有对价格上涨的压力，不同方向的价格压力会在一定程度上相互对冲，从而有利于在整体上稳定物价。

Monetary policy should pay attention to the impact of structural changes on prices. An aging population is disinflationary, as precautionary savings will rise while the propensity to consume will drop. The green transition, however, will drive prices up. Then, what is green transition? It is defined as a shift to a low-carbon way of production and living. To put it simply, green transition encourages more use of clean energy, and less fossil fuel, a major source of carbon emission. However, under current technological conditions, clean energy is more expensive and less stable than fossil fuels. That is why the green premium came into being. Right now, the cost of fossil carbon emission is almost non-existent. Therefore, the job of green transition is to make the implicit cost of fossil carbon emissions explicit and impose restrictions on them. This will require for one, that emitters pay for incremental carbon emissions, and for two, that existing emission rights be made tradable through proper pricing. This way, those that reduce emissions will be rewarded while the emitters will pay their price. Production and consumption will then realize a low-carbon transition. Such a transition, however, will raise carbon emission-related costs and create upward structural pressure on prices. As the upward and downward pressure on prices in the above analysis offset each other to some extent, the overall price level is expected to stay stable.

近期全球原油等大宗商品价格上涨较快，全球通胀水平短期上升已成事实，但对通胀是否能长期持续下去，存在着巨大分歧。我国去年疫情期间坚持实施正常货币政策，国内总需求比较平稳，有利于保持物价总体稳定。今年以来我国PPI增幅较高，一定程度上与去年PPI为负形成的低基数有关，所以我们可以用去年今年和明年连续三年的整体视角来观察PPI变化。综合各方面因素判断，今年我国CPI走势前低后高，全年的CPI平均涨幅预计在2%以下。当然，外部的疫情形势、经济回升、宏观形势和宏观政策等都有不确定性，对来自各方面的通胀和通缩的压力均不可掉以轻心。

Driven by rapidly rising commodity prices, global inflation will rise in the short run. However, there have been highly divergent views over whether inflation will become a long-term trend. Despite the COVID-19 shock, China managed to maintain a normal monetary policy last year. A stable domestic demand also helped with price stability. Our PPI has seen big increases this year and this is partly due to the low or even negative base numbers of last year. Therefore, when we look at PPI changes, it is advisable to use a longer-term approach, covering three consecutive years from last year to the next year. All things considered, it is estimated that China’s CPI will rise gradually this year, but the annual increase is expected to be below 2 percent. Admittedly, the global COVID-19 situation, economic recovery, macro conditions and economic policies are all possible causes of uncertainties. We still need to stay on high alert against both inflationary and deflationary pressures arising from different aspects.

考虑到我国经济运行在合理区间内，在潜在产出水平附近，物价走势整体可控，货币政策要与新发展阶段相适应，坚持稳字当头，坚持实施正常的货币政策，尤其是注重跨周期的供求平衡，把握好政策的力度和节奏。目前国内利率水平虽比主要发达经济体高一些，但在发展中国家和新兴经济体中仍相对较低，总体保持在适宜的水平，有利于各市场的稳定健康发展。要继续深化利率市场化改革，释放贷款市场报价利率改革潜力。要继续完善以市场供求为基础、参考一篮子货币进行调节、有管理的浮动汇率制度，促进内外平衡，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。在保持总量政策适度的前提下，货币信贷政策将主要强调两大结构性方面。

Given that the Chinese economy stays within an appropriate range and is around its potential growth, our price level is generally under control. Therefore, our monetary policy should be adaptive to the new development stage and prioritize stability. The PBOC will pursue a normal monetary policy, carefully balance inter-temporal supply and demand, and execute the policy with the right strength and intensity. Currently, China’s interest rates are a bit higher than those of major advanced economies, while relatively lower compared with developing countries and emerging economies. An appropriate interest level is conducive to stable and sound development of all markets. We must continue to deepen market-based interest rate reform, and make the most of our Loan Prime Rate (LPR) reform. We must further improve our managed floating exchange rate regime based on market supply and demand with reference to a basket of currencies, promote both internal and external balance, and keep the RMB exchange rate basically stable at an adaptive and equilibrium level. While keeping the aggregate policy appropriate, monetary and credit policies should then focus on two structural issues.

第一，扎实推动绿色金融发展。实现碳达峰、碳中和目标，是党中央作出的重大战略决策。人民银行积极运用结构性货币政策等工具，多措并举助力经济的绿色转型和碳达峰、碳中和目标的实现。一是完善绿色金融标准体系。人民银行、银保监会等部门较早制定了绿色债券和绿色信贷的标准。同时与欧盟有关部门等方面紧密合作，共同推动绿色分类标准的趋同。二是建立气候环境信息披露制度。推动国内主要商业银行披露气候变化相关信息，并研究推广至上市公司等市场主体。未来，将建立统一的信息披露标准。三是激励金融部门加大对绿色产业的资金支持。研究碳减排支持工具。四是引导金融机构防范气候变化风险。人民银行已开展金融机构气候变化风险压力测试，并持续监测评估金融机构绿色转型。要充分考虑现有基础设施的投入成本、预期使用寿命和折旧的实际情况，稳妥设计转轨参数和动态风险权重，努力实现在绿色转型的过渡期平稳转轨。

First, we will make solid progress in developing green finance. Peaking carbon emissions and achieving carbon neutrality is a strategic decision of the CPC Central Committee. To reach this goal and to facilitate green transition of the economy, the PBOC has used structural monetary policy tools and put in place multiple measures. First, we have improved the taxonomy of green finance. More specifically, the PBOC, together with the CBIRC, have issued the taxonomy of green bonds and green credit. Meanwhile, we are working closely with our EU counterparts to harmonize taxonomies. Second, we are developing a climate and environmental information disclosure system. We have encouraged major domestic commercial banks to disclose climate-related information and are working on a plan to encourage more market entities, such as listed firms, to follow suit. Going forward, the PBOC plans to establish a unified disclosure standard. Third, we are encouraging financial institutions to enhance their support for green industries, and enrich the toolkit in support of emission reduction. Fourth, we are guiding financial institutions to guard against climate-related risks. The PBOC has conducted climate risk stress tests on financial institutions, and is monitoring and evaluating the green transition of financial institutions on a daily basis. The input costs, the expected life cycle and depreciation of existing infrastructure are to be fully considered in the course of transition. Transition parameters and different weights for dynamic risks should be properly designed so as to ensure a smooth transition.

第二，坚持发展普惠金融。近年来我们持续加大对小微企业和个体工商户的金融支持。实现保就业保民生，实现增收入促消费，从而稳住经济基本盘。我们始终坚持市场化、法治化原则，健全激励相容机制，强化商业银行信贷风险管控能力。目前普惠小微贷款已支持3600多万户小微企业和个体工商户。我们将继续运用结构性货币政策工具，发挥部门政策合力，引导银行在商业可持续的前提下，加大首贷、信用贷支持力度。鼓励银行与企业按照商业可持续原则，加强贷款风险防范。深入开展中小微企业金融服务能力提升工程，强化金融科技手段运用，推广随借随还模式，促进商业银行加快形成敢贷、愿贷、能贷、会贷的长效机制。

Second, we will continue to grow inclusive finance. In recent years, we have increased financial support for micro and small businesses (MSBs) and self-employed individuals. We have secured jobs growth and improved people’s livelihood. By raising incomes and boosting consumption, we have helped to stabilize the overall economy. In line with the market principles and rule of law, we have made incentives more compatible, and improved credit risk management of commercial banks. So far, more than 36 million MSBs and self-employed individuals have got access to inclusive loans. We will continue to use structural monetary policy tools and form policy synergy with other agencies to guide banks to increase first-time borrower loans and unsecured loans while ensuring business sustainability. Banks and enterprises will be encouraged to strengthen credit risk prevention in a commercially sustainable manner. We will further improve financial services for MSBs by better applying Fintech, adopting the borrow-as-you-go lending model, and encouraging commercial banks to develop a long-term mechanism whereby they are willing, able and capable to lend.

推动上海国际金融中心建设，要以习近平新时代中国特色社会主义经济思想为指引，增创国际合作和竞争新优势，以国际循环提升国内大循环的效率和水平。近日，中央再次就支持浦东新区高水平改革开放提出明确意见和要求，支持上海进一步完善金融市场体系、产品体系、机构体系、基础设施体系，增强全球资源配置能力。我曾在之前的陆家嘴论坛上提出，上海国际金融中心一定是基于人民币资产形成的国际金融中心。随着全球配置人民币资产需求的增加，将衍生出对人民币资产的风险管理、法治环境、人才供给等一系列需求。在此过程中，上海将成为人民币资产配置中心、风险管理中心、金融科技中心、优质营商环境示范中心和金融人才中心，将成为更有竞争力的国际金融中心。对此，我们充满信心。

To build Shanghai into an international financial center, we should follow the guidance of Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, forge new advantages in international cooperation and competition, and make domestic circulation better and more effective by way of international circulation. Recently, the CPC Central Committee has once again set out clear visions and requirements for the high-level reform and opening-up in the Pudong new area to support Shanghai in further improving its financial market system, product system, institutional system and infrastructure system, and in enhancing its capacity of global resources allocation. As I mentioned at the Lujiazui Forum before, Shanghai, as an international financial center, is bound to gain its edge based on RMB-denominated assets. Growing global appetite for RMB assets will derive new demand for RMB asset risk management, legal environment improvement and better talent support. In this process, Shanghai will become an RMB asset allocation center, a risk management center, a Fintech center, and a center of business excellence and financial talents, which, I am sure, will make the city a more competitive financial center internationally.

下一步，人民银行将一如既往地支持上海国际金融中心建设工作。支持上海强化全球资源配置功能，打造促进双循环的绿色金融枢纽，推动长三角一体化高质量发展，助力上海成为新发展格局下联通国际市场和国内市场的重要枢纽和桥梁。

Going forward, the PBOC will continue to support the development of Shanghai as an international financial center. As Shanghai sets out to enhance its global resources allocation capacity, develop into a green finance hub that promotes dual circulations, drive high-quality and integrated development of the Yangtze River Delta region, and serve as a bridge connecting international and domestic markets under the new development paradigm, we stand ready to pledge our help and support.

最后，预祝本届论坛取得圆满成功！谢谢大家！

I wish the forum a complete success. Thank you.

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