The term "dual circulation economy" has been popping up in economic discussions across China, signaling a potential paradigm shift in the Chinese economy.
最近,“双循环经济”成为了中国经济的关键词,这意味着中国经济的发展模式或要发生转向。
But what exactly is a dual circulation economy?
但究竟什么是“双循环经济”呢?
The concept has two equally strong components: "internal circulation," which refers to domestic economic activities, and "external circulation," which relates to China's economic links with the outside world.
这一战略有两个部分组成,“内循环”,即国内的经济活动,和“外循环”,即中国与外部世界的经济联系。
It signals that China wants to reduce the role of international trade in its economy, and strengthen its domestic economy.
“双循环经济”提出表明中国想要降低对于国际贸易的依赖,同时加强其国内经济。
Why?
这又是为什么呢?
Well, a couple of factors are at play. First of all, as the COVID-19 pandemic sends shudders across the world, the economic outlook outside China does not look particularly optimistic at the moment.
这其中有许多因素,首先,随着新冠疫情震荡全球,中国当前的外部经济环境并不乐观。
Worsening China-U.S. relations have also loomed large in China's consideration, as the U.S. contemplates decoupling and seems bent on crippling China's economic and technological development.
These, coupled with rising unilateralism and protectionism around the world, have pushed China to think more long term.
再加上单边主义和保护主义在世界范围内抬头,这些都促使中国要做长期筹谋。
How can this dual strategy be achieved?
但这一策略要如何实行?
While specific measures have not been fleshed out by the government, economists have rushed to put forward some general suggestions.
尽管细节尚未明确,但经济学家已争先给出一些总体性建议。
For example, they argue that to fortify China's domestic economy, domestic consumption needs to play a much bigger role in driving economic growth, as it currently accounts for about 55 percent of the country's GDP.
To make that happen, China will need to increase its residents' incomes and optimize income distribution so that residents can be more relaxed about spending their money.
为了增加消费对经济的驱动,中国需要增加居民收入,优化居民收入分配,这样居民方可更加放心消费。
Some other issues need to be tackled as well. China needs to make sure its land, capital, talent, and technology, along with other resources, go to places where they are needed the most. So it has to deepen its supply-side structural reform to make sure its economy runs efficiently.
Innovation and the digital economy, which involves developing AI, big data and 5G, all of which are major engines behind today's economic growth, have to receive even greater attention.
That said, does a dual circulation economy mean China will isolate itself from the rest of the world? Certainly not. China has benefited enormously from opening-up in the past four decades and recognizes it should continue down this path.
But how? Chinese economists believe the country should welcome more foreign investment, strengthen its Belt and Road Initiative, negotiate more free trade agreements and take advantage of its free trade zones and ports.
Will the outside world be affected by China's new economic policy? Absolutely and there are many implications.
其他国家会受到中国新经济策略的影响吗?当然,并且影响会很大。
The growth of domestic consumption makes investment in Chinese consumer companies a smart choice. President Trump's attack on the supply of semiconductors has accelerated China's development of substitute chips, making Chinese tech companies that serve the domestic market an attractive investment.
Companies on the export side of the dual economy also provide an opportunity for steady growth. The opening of China's stock and bond markets gives investors access to Chinese companies serving both sectors of the dual economy.
So, yes, China would still need to work with the world to strengthen its economic resilience. But how the world engages with the Chinese economy also require adjustment.